▲ Work in progress. This site is built and researched in the open: pages, numbers and findings may change or be wrong, and the record has gaps. Not advice. More

What's new

What changed on the site, newest first · the Lab's own record is in its notebook

30 Oct 2026

Order flow, a new page: the resting order book for Bitcoin and Ether as a heatmap of price over time, and under it the takers' running buys less sells, split by order size. order flow
The heatmaps' colours: the quiet end now shows instead of fading into the page, prices past the book's reach are left plain with a faint line where the record stops, and the correlation map runs blue to orange around grey, readable without telling red from green. a coin page · analysis
Bitcoin around the FOMC: where the liquidations sat after the US rate decision on 28 October, and how they did a day later; and a fifth look at whether the market's mood warns of a bot's losses (still not shown). the Lab

27 Oct 2026

Nine new pages in the Lab: purple whales (do big orders lead Bitcoin?), how our backtester works, two opposing Bitcoin grids, how long until a strategy comes out ahead, trend over months, session momentum, skill or luck, the best of many tries, and real liquidation clusters. the Lab
The confluence board: five signals that each failed alone, read together every day, and how many lean each way. the board
Where the idea comes from: each live study, and the older write-ups from momentum to the carry trade, now open with who first set the idea out and how ours differs. a study
The liquidations page shows when Bybit's and Binance's live feeds were down, so a quiet hour can be told from a missing one. liquidations
Long tables show their first 10 rows, with "show all" under them; the coin pages' line charts leave room above and below the lines.

26 Oct 2026

The same long, held two ways: the tilt soak's final score, 9 to 21 October. The tilt finished ahead, by too little and over too few days to tell from chance. the update

22 Oct 2026

Switches on the coin pages' charts: tick or untick an exchange in a chart's key to show or hide its line, and each part of the years panel turns off on its own. a coin page
The demo soak, looked back on: our bots on five demo and testnet accounts, 13 to 21 October, each result split into the bots and the idle coins. the write-up
A premium chart on every coin page: each exchange's future against the price it follows, over the last 24 hours, with how to read it. a coin page
The menu's arrows stay beside their names: "Strategies tested" no longer drops its arrow to a line of its own.
The Lab's write-ups show their sub-points indented under the point they belong to, as written. the Lab

21 Oct 2026

A lighter home page: the 20 crypto coins and the 10 tokenised markets with the most open interest, each with the way to all of its kind; and a new page listing every crypto coin, sortable. home · crypto markets
Charts you can click through: the rebalancing study's three now sit in one, its title stepping to the next coin. And the on-chain study's depth table now shows 1,000 and 100,000 USD orders, with how many times more each cost on chain; its page lists what changed. rebalancing · on chain
In the Lab, a fourth tokenised-assets study: where tokenised gold and stocks traded, on chain or on the exchanges, how deep each was near the price, and which one set the price. the study
In the Lab, a third tokenised-assets study: what a token or a perp costs against the real thing, and how gold and the big stock funds compared with Bitcoin and Ether. the study
Eight Lab pages reworded to say what the data showed rather than what to do: carry, grids, market making, momentum, pairs, Sharpe and stock perps; each lists its old wording in an "Update, 21 October 2026" part. The carry tilt page also has the paper test's first score. the Lab
A new Lab series, tokenised assets: stock perps while the stock market is shut, and gold on crypto exchanges. stock perps · gold
New page: tokenised assets. Gold and the tokens for it, the futures that follow silver, oil, index funds and company shares, and the tokens of projects that issue tokenised assets: prices, open interest, funding and each one's premium to what it follows, with what tokenised assets are, in plain words. Information only, not advice. tokenised assets
On a phone or tablet, the menu now opens where you are on the page, not only at the top; tap beside it or "× close" to close it. The grid-gremlin panel's totals now scroll away instead of filling the screen. grid-gremlin
Find us on GitHub: the icon at the foot of the menu.
Plain words on 13 Lab pages: Pine, repainting, slippage, wicks, mark price, overfitting and aggressor, each explained with a small example where it first appears; each page lists what was added in an "Update, 21 October 2026" part. The Sharpe page also has its monthly re-read of the paper accounts. the Lab
A correction in the Lab: Binance's readings of 15 Oct, 11:00 to 14:55 UTC, were wrong in its own archive, and are now left out. The studies from the years were worked out again: no verdict changed; a few figures moved slightly. Each study page and the notebook say what moved. notebook

20 Oct 2026

New page: open interest. Every coin across seven exchanges: what is building up and what is unwinding, four boxes that read price and open interest together, how large the bets are for each coin's size and trading, and where each sits against its own past since 2022. open interest

18 Oct 2026

New in the Lab: coin-flip traders, who pick the day and the side by coin flips. About 1 in 100 beat the fee, and fewer than half beat even no fee. It opens a series that tests published edges against these traders. coin-flip traders
Charts in 17 more write-ups, from first passage and the Sharpe ratio to pairs, carry and the theory pages: most say what they draw in a short Update part. first passage · the Sharpe ratio · pairs · Kelly
Three new in the Lab: the volume clock, with the first charts in a write-up (its returns against a bell curve); the BDS test for memory in returns; and a theory page on quantum finance. the volume clock · the BDS test · quantum finance
A number that changes now glows for a moment as the page updates (not if your device asks for less motion). A shared link shows the page's title and a line about it, and a mistyped address lands on a "not found" page.
Coin pages: the order-book chart now names the exchanges its liquidation dots come from, read from the record.
The notice page no longer loses its top on a phone.
A table wider than the screen now says "scroll →" at its top right, until it is scrolled to its end.
Home now names the Lab's newest write-up, with its verdict, under Go deeper. home
Charts read on a phone: their labels are larger there, and the grid study's chart by coin scrolls sideways.

17 Oct 2026

A new page, Calm or wild: each coin's volatility against its own last 90 days, calm, normal or wild, always with its number, updated hourly. And a new write-up: would the touch map's odds be better with a table for calm and wild markets? Not reliably. Calm or wild · the write-up
Corrections on 27 Lab pages, from an outside check of every page: each a dated update on its page, the text above it left as it was, and each listed in the Lab notebook. No verdict changed. The biggest: the carry theory page no longer leans on a withdrawn test. Lab notebook

16 Oct 2026

Two more in the Lab: when a carry trade on a loan should stand down, and the QFL signal in a TradingView accumulator; neither rule beat its control. And 21 write-ups now say where their idea comes from. Lab · Lab notebook
Every write-up now shows when it was last checked, from a weekly check that its finding still stands (the live studies, 1 to 11, are worked out again at every update, and show its time instead). A few pages edited, each noted in the Lab notebook: no verdict changed. The carry trade in one account adds a test on a demo account. Lab notebook
A new group in the Lab, Theory: nine explainers, T1 to T9, on the ideas behind the tests (Shannon's demon, Kelly, steady buying, momentum, mean reversion, random twins, survivorship, Fibonacci and Elliott, carry). And every page now has its authors, PerpGremlin and Claude, and its Credits: the work each rests on. Lab
In the Lab, buying steadily (DCA) against all at once: on coins that rose, all at once usually ended higher, and DCA's calmer ride is mostly the cash it holds back. Lab
In the Lab, ending up with more Bitcoin without adding money: selling a slice high and buying it back lower, or hedging for funding, counted in Bitcoin against holding. Neither passed. Lab

15 Oct 2026

Elliott waves in the Lab: the rules, the Fibonacci zones and the wave trades explained, then tested with the waves counted as they happen. No zone and no trade beat random. Lab
Two dated notes beside the CPI one: its liquidation levels scored a day later, and the same map after the US producer-price (PPI) surprise the next day. Lab
In the Lab, how the coins were picked, and what that does: a list picked today flatters the past, by how much (measured with the dead coins put back), and what it means for each page. No verdict changes. Lab
On the home page, the day's standouts (best, worst, wildest, funding, movers) count only coins with $25M or more in open interest, so a thin coin no longer tops them every day; the totals still count every coin. home
Less repeated: "not advice" is said once, in the banner and footer of every page; a write-up's summary line stays on its card; the Lab notebook and this page each point to the other. Lab notebook
Momentum across coins, in three parts: buying the strongest coins and selling the weakest since 2021, tested again on 2018–2020, and on Bitcoin and the largest coins only, where it lost. Lab
In the Lab, the carry trade held in one account: through every crash since 2020, minute by minute, with the coins paid for, and why borrowing for them doesn't pay. Lab
Four more in the Lab, the answers no included: a 2% stop, 4% target bot, whether coins have a clock, forced selling and crowded trades, and buying a sharp drop, tested again on fresh prices. Lab
Eight new pieces in the Lab, and a new group, Strategies tested: grid bots with more rungs or fewer, adaptive grids, a trend bet beside the grid, the same long held two ways (carry with a tilt), pairs trading, Shannon's demon (rebalancing 50/50), market making on Bybit, and whether the S&P 500's RSI warns of Bitcoin's falls. Lab
Six new pieces in the Lab: how far to trust a Sharpe ratio, grid bots followed up over four years, liquidation levels after a turn, Fibonacci confluence, funding carry and the hedged basket, and the first dated note: Bitcoin after the 14 Oct CPI release, where the liquidations sat. Lab
Fixes: the coin links on the study pages, clearer wording, every verdict in one list in the glossary, the grid study in the same frame as the others (#24), and the site's icon on every page. glossary

14 Oct 2026

In the Lab, our DCA ladder put to three tests: fewer orders with wider gaps, selling in two halves, and how much leverage a ladder can take once the chance of ruin is counted. Every study now explains its maths step by step. DCA ladder
The Lab is now a research index, in groups: a page for each study, the notebook on its own, and new research: the SvL indicator tested on Bitcoin's 4-hour chart (its design) and on other charts and coins, market moods against the bots' trades, the chance a price touches a level, and models for reading a market explained. research index
On a coin page, the order book chart's layers switch on and off: the book, the price line, long and short liquidations. a coin page
The grid-gremlin application real panel, as it draws itself: a read-only picture of the paper accounts, updated every ten minutes. grid-gremlin application
The paper bots run on the grid-gremlin application, and its open-source edition, grid-gremlin CE, is linked from the paper bots page and the menu. paper bots
Daily downloads: a table for each day, a row a coin (prices, volume, open interest, funding, liquidations, market cap), to open in a spreadsheet. downloads
Coins sort by volume and by market cap: on the home page, in the menu and on the analysis board. Market caps from CoinGecko, every six hours. analysis
A glossary: every term on the site in plain words. glossary
This page: what changed on the site, day by day.
"Right now" on the home page: what stands out this hour. home
On phones and tablets each part of a page sits in its own box, and long text folds behind "show more".

13 Oct 2026

Lab studies 10 and 11: Funding apart (does a gap between Hyperliquid's funding and Binance's say where the price goes?) and Memes behind Bitcoin (do meme coins follow Bitcoin's last hour?). study 10 · study 11
A funding page: every coin's funding on every exchange side by side, and where its open interest sits. funding
Four more exchanges: Hyperliquid, Gate, Bitget and MEXC, for open interest and funding; Gate's liquidations too.
33 more coins, 66 in all: meme coins, silver and oil, and the next largest by market cap. The Lab keeps its first 32. analysis
The paper bots: demo and testnet trading bots as research data, each account's and bot's total by day. paper bots
A Lab study of grid bots with and without a stop, over 30 months of prices. the grid study
Lab studies 7, 8 and 9: liquidation cascades, the hour's habit, into the funding payment. study 7 · study 8 · study 9
A menu of every page down the left (on a phone, "≡ menu"); the analysis board sorts by any column.
Liquidations on a page of their own; each chart says how fresh its data is; a clock in UTC and your own time. liquidations

12 Oct 2026

The site opens: the home page, every coin at a glance, a page per coin, and the notice. home · analysis
The Lab: ideas traders use, each tested against the record and given a verdict; six studies and a dated notebook. the Lab
The years: each coin's long run from Binance's archive, back to 2022. a coin page

Educational research from public market data; any trading discussed is paper, never real. Nothing here is advice. The full notice.