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#68 Bitcoin around the FOMC decision: where the liquidations sit
A session note, 28 Oct 2026, odds as of 20:00 UTC. Dated and frozen: it is never refreshed. Public prices only. Liquidation levels are estimates from leverage and entry, not real liquidation orders.
Written on 30 October 2026, not at 20:00 UTC on 28 October as planned. Every rule, entry time and input was fixed and committed on 26 October, before the statement, and the odds use only candles up to 20:00 UTC on 28 October, so writing late changed no number.
The US Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee (the FOMC) published its decision at 18:00 UTC, and its press conference ran from 18:30 to about 19:30. This note shows where traders on leverage get liquidated, and how likely the price was to reach each level, as of 20:00 UTC. It uses only the clock, not what the Fed decided.
- The candle before the statement (17:45) closed at 80,816.
- The first 15 minutes after it (the 18:00 candle) closed at 80,797, almost unchanged.
- The candle at the press conference's end (19:15) closed at 81,176.
- At 20:00 the price was 81,549, 0.9% above where it was before the statement. Bitcoin had been moving about 1.5% a day.
These three entries are fixed times, set on 26 October and taken whichever way the price went. Our CPI note ("Bitcoin after the CPI flush: where the liquidations sit") used "the low so far" as its third entry, which needed the move's direction and could only be picked afterwards. These do not.
The levels nearest the price
The chance of a touch from 20:00 UTC, over the next hours and days:
| level | who gets liquidated | away | 1 h | 4 h | 10 h | 1 day | 1 week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82,394 | 50x shorts, opened after the press conference | +1.0% | 1.4% | 8.6% | 19% | 38% | 78% |
| 82,028 | 50x shorts, opened before the statement | +0.6% | 5.8% | 25% | 42% | 59% | 88% |
| 82,009 | 50x shorts, opened at the decision | +0.6% | 5.8% | 25% | 42% | 68% | 88% |
| 81,582 | 100x shorts, opened after the press conference | +0.04% | 3.8% | 11% | 18% | 27% | 94% |
| price at 20:00: 81,549 | |||||||
| 80,771 | 100x longs, opened after the press conference | −1.0% | 2.2% | 9.4% | 25% | 45% | 78% |
| 80,412 | 100x longs, opened before the statement | −1.4% | under 0.5% | 4.0% | 12% | 28% | 70% |
| 80,393 | 100x longs, opened at the decision | −1.4% | 0.8% | 3.6% | 12% | 28% | 70% |
| 79,959 | 50x longs, opened after the press conference | −1.9% | under 0.5% | 1.9% | 6.3% | 18% | 54% |
| 79,604 | 50x longs, opened before the statement | −2.4% | under 0.5% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 11% | 50% |
Already wiped out by 20:00:
- 100x shorts opened before the statement (81,220);
- 100x shorts opened at the decision (81,201).
The likeliest touches, by the curve: 82,028–82,009 just above, and 80,771 just below. Within a day the curve gave them 59–68% and 45%.
One level is a special case. 81,582, the 100x shorts opened after the press conference, sat only 0.04% above the price. That is nearer than any level the curve was measured on (the nearest was 0.5% away). Its odds come from a thin band that takes the rate of every band beyond it, so the curve gives it only 3.8% within an hour. The textbook formula gives 89%. For this one level, the curve's figure can't be read as a chance.
Every level
| level | who | away | 1 h | 2 h | 4 h | 6 h | 10 h | 1 day | 1 week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88,888 | 10x shorts, after the press conference | +9.0% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 5.4% |
| 88,494 | 10x shorts, before the statement | +8.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.7% | 8.3% |
| 88,472 | 10x shorts, at the decision | +8.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.7% | 8.3% |
| 84,829 | 20x shorts, after the press conference | +4.0% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 28% |
| 84,453 | 20x shorts, before the statement | +3.6% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 29% |
| 84,433 | 20x shorts, at the decision | +3.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 29% |
| 84,018 | 25x shorts, after the press conference | +3.0% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 7.4% | 43% |
| 83,645 | 25x shorts, before the statement | +2.6% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 10% | 50% |
| 83,625 | 25x shorts, at the decision | +2.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 10% | 50% |
| 82,394 | 50x shorts, after the press conference | +1.0% | 1.4% | 4.3% | 8.6% | 13% | 19% | 38% | 78% |
| 82,028 | 50x shorts, before the statement | +0.6% | 5.8% | 11% | 25% | 30% | 42% | 59% | 88% |
| 82,009 | 50x shorts, at the decision | +0.6% | 5.8% | 13% | 25% | 34% | 42% | 68% | 88% |
| 81,582 | 100x shorts, after the press conference | +0.04% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 11% | 14% | 18% | 27% | 94% |
| 80,771 | 100x longs, after the press conference | −1.0% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 9.4% | 15% | 25% | 45% | 78% |
| 80,412 | 100x longs, before the statement | −1.4% | under 0.5% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 12% | 28% | 70% |
| 80,393 | 100x longs, at the decision | −1.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 12% | 28% | 70% |
| 79,959 | 50x longs, after the press conference | −1.9% | under 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 18% | 54% |
| 79,604 | 50x longs, before the statement | −2.4% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 11% | 50% |
| 79,585 | 50x longs, at the decision | −2.4% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 11% | 50% |
| 78,335 | 25x longs, after the press conference | −3.9% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 28% |
| 77,987 | 25x longs, before the statement | −4.4% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 2.5% | 22% |
| 77,969 | 25x longs, at the decision | −4.4% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 22% |
| 77,523 | 20x longs, after the press conference | −4.9% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 20% |
| 77,179 | 20x longs, before the statement | −5.4% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 1.5% | 14% |
| 77,161 | 20x longs, at the decision | −5.4% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 1.5% | 14% |
| 73,465 | 10x longs, after the press conference | −9.9% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 6.5% |
| 73,138 | 10x longs, before the statement | −10.3% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 6.0% |
| 73,121 | 10x longs, at the decision | −10.3% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 6.0% |
The 5x levels (65,041–65,347 below, 96,552–97,006 above) are 18–20% away. That is further than the curve was measured, so they get no odds.
A few further levels show higher odds than nearer ones, for example 77,969 at 0.9% in 10 hours against 77,987 at under 0.5%. The odds should fall with distance. This is noise in our own curve: it is read from history in bands of z, and a thin band takes the rate of every band beyond it. Read neighbouring levels as about the same.
The time of day matters
Bitcoin's typical move in each hour of the day (UTC), against a normal hour, over four years:
| hours (UTC) | how busy |
|---|---|
| 13:00–14:00 | 1.3x |
| 14:00–15:00 | 1.6x, the busiest |
| 15:00–16:00 | 1.4x |
| 16:00–18:00 | 1.2x |
| 18:00–20:00, the statement and press conference | 1.05–1.15x |
| 20:00–24:00, the hours after this note | 0.9–1.0x |
| 00:00–02:00 | 1.1–1.15x |
| 04:00–07:00 | about 0.8x, the quietest |
These are averages over all days, FOMC days or not. The odds above use the last few days' average move, not the hour. The four hours after 20:00 have been about a normal hour, so they were probably about as likely as shown. The two hours from 00:00 UTC have run a little busier.
The maths, step by step
1. The liquidation price. A trader at L times leverage puts down 1/L of the position as margin. They are liquidated when the loss eats it, less a small cushion the exchange keeps: the maintenance margin, about 0.5% on Bitcoin.
- A long goes at entry × (1 − 1/L + 0.005). A short goes at entry × (1 + 1/L − 0.005).
- Example: a 50x long opened at 80,816 goes at 80,816 × (1 − 0.02 + 0.005) = 80,816 × 0.985 = 79,604. At 20:00 it was still 2.4% below the price.
- A short: a 100x short opened at 80,816 goes at 80,816 × (1 + 0.01 − 0.005) = 80,816 × 1.005 = 81,220. The price was above that by 20:00.
2. The odds of a touch. Example: the 50x short opened at the decision, liquidated at 82,009. Price at 20:00: 81,549. Within 4 hours?
- The distance, as a growth rate: 82,009 ÷ 81,549 is 0.562% higher.
- The volatility, called σ (sigma): how much Bitcoin typically moves in an hour, from its recent hours, with the newest counting most (an "exponentially weighted" average, made popular by J.P. Morgan's RiskMetrics). It was 0.296% an hour.
- Over 4 hours the typical move grows with the square root of the time (a rule as old as Bachelier's 1900 model of prices): 0.296% × √4 = 0.592%. Up and down hours partly cancel.
- z = distance ÷ typical move = 0.562 ÷ 0.592 = 0.95. The level was a little under one typical move away.
- The market's own curve: over four years of Bitcoin's hours, levels about 0.95 typical moves away were touched within 4 hours 25% of the time.
- The textbook bell-curve formula says 34%. It overstates near levels a little and badly understates far ones: for the 10x shorts opened before the statement, 3.3% in a week against the curve's 8.3%. So this note uses the market's own record. Big moves are more common than a bell curve allows, as Benoit Mandelbrot showed in 1963.
Read with care
- Liquidation levels don't pull the price. An earlier study of ours found no edge in trading them after fees. These odds come only from distance and how much Bitcoin was moving.
- The levels on one side are nested. Reaching 79,604 means passing 80,771 first. So each side is one sample, not one per level. And one FOMC decision is one event: one sample, not an edge.
- Real traders got in at many prices, not only these three, so their liquidations are spread out. No data on where positions really sat was used.
- No view on direction, or on the decision. Up and down are treated alike, and nothing about what the Fed decided went into the odds.
- The odds were as of 20:00 UTC. They went stale as the price moved.
- Cross margin, fees and funding move a real liquidation price a little. These levels assume isolated margin.
How it was made
- Fixed in advance: the times, the entries, the method and the follow-up's scoring were committed on 26 October, before the statement. The method is our CPI note's, unchanged.
- Entries: Bybit linear 15-minute candles, the closes of the 17:45, 18:00 and 19:15 candles.
- The price at 20:00: the close of Bybit's 1-minute candle opening at 19:59.
- The odds: Bybit linear hourly candles, 28 October 2022 20:00 to 28 October 2026 19:00 UTC (35,064 hours), a start every 2 hours.
- The volatility: remembers about four days.
- The curve: levels from 0.5% to 12% away, both sides, waits of 1 hour to a week, read in bands of 0.1 in z. Rare far bands are pooled with everything beyond them.
Credits
- Louis Bachelier, "Théorie de la spéculation", Annales scientifiques de l'École Normale Supérieure, 1900: prices as Brownian motion, the square-root-of-time rule and the textbook touch formula.
- J.P. Morgan and Reuters, RiskMetrics — Technical Document, 1996: the exponentially weighted volatility.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices", Journal of Business, 1963: fat tails.
- The meeting's times follow the Federal Reserve's published FOMC calendar.
- The liquidation levels follow the exchanges' published margin rules, simplified (isolated margin, a 0.5% maintenance margin).
- The market's own touch curve is our own, from "First passage: the chance a price touches a level", used as in "Bitcoin after the CPI flush: where the liquidations sit".
- Data: Bybit's public linear BTCUSDT 15-minute, 1-minute and hourly prices.
- PerpGremlin and Claude, Bitcoin around the FOMC decision: where the liquidations sit, TerminalGremlin, 2026: the tests, the code and the words.
← Bitcoin after the PPI flush, 15 OctBitcoin around the FOMC: a day later →
Educational research from public market data; any trading discussed is paper, never real. Nothing here is advice. The full notice.