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#44 Bitcoin after the PPI flush: where the liquidations sit
A session note, 15 Oct 2026, odds as of 14:45 UTC. Dated and frozen: it is never refreshed. Public prices only. Liquidation levels are estimates from leverage and entry, not real liquidation orders.
Last checked: 16 October 2026.
US producer prices (PPI) came in higher than expected at 12:30 UTC. This is the day after CPI also came in hot ("Bitcoin after the CPI flush"). Bitcoin fell, then bounced. This note shows where traders on leverage get liquidated, which levels were already hit, and how likely the price is to reach the rest, as of 14:45 UTC.
- The candle before PPI (12:15) closed at 81,029.
- The low was 79,732, in the 13:45 candle: −1.6%. This is the flush of longs.
- Then a bounce, to 81,391 in the 14:00 candle, and on to 81,594 in the 14:30 candle: +2.3% from the low.
- At 14:45 the price was 81,463, above where it was before PPI. Bitcoin had been moving about 1.8% a day.
Were shorts punished after the longs were flushed?
Yes, but only at high leverage, and both sides were hit about equally. Three long levels and three short levels were already hit by 14:45:
| level | who was liquidated | when |
|---|---|---|
| 79,814 | 50x longs, opened before PPI | in the drop to 79,732 |
| 80,624 | 100x longs, opened before PPI | in the drop |
| 80,131 | 100x shorts, opened at the low | in the bounce |
| 80,928 | 50x shorts, opened at the low | in the bounce |
| 81,434 | 100x shorts, opened before PPI | in the bounce, at 81,594 |
| 80,984 | 100x longs, bought at the 14:00 bounce top | in the 14:15 dip to 80,920 |
Shorts opened at the low at 25x or less were not hit. The bounce of 2.3% reached only the 50x and 100x shorts. So the move first flushed high- leverage longs, then high-leverage shorts. It was not a large squeeze.
The levels nearest the price
The chance of a touch from 14:45 UTC, over the next hours and days:
| level | who gets liquidated | away | 1 h | 4 h | 10 h (end of the UTC day) | 1 day | 1 week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83,320 | 20x shorts, opened at the low | +2.3% | under 0.5% | 2.7% | 8.3% | 21% | 63% |
| 82,523 | 25x shorts, opened at the low | +1.3% | 0.9% | 8.4% | 19% | 38% | 78% |
| 82,245 | 50x shorts, opened before PPI | +1.0% | 2.9% | 15% | 32% | 51% | 78% |
| 81,797 | 100x shorts, opened at the bounce top | +0.4% | 18% | 46% | 65% | 76% | 94% |
| price at 14:45: 81,463 | |||||||
| 80,170 | 50x longs, bought at the bounce top | −1.6% | 0.9% | 5.4% | 15% | 33% | 71% |
| 79,334 | 100x longs, bought at the low | −2.6% | under 0.5% | 1.5% | 4.9% | 14% | 54% |
| 78,542 | 25x longs, bought at the bounce top | −3.6% | under 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 7.5% | 43% |
| 78,536 | 50x longs, bought at the low | −3.6% | under 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 7.5% | 43% |
| 78,193 | 25x longs, opened before PPI | −4.0% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 2.2% | 6.6% | 36% |
The likeliest touch is just above: 81,797, the 100x shorts from the bounce top, at 0.4% away. Below, the nearest level left is 1.6% away, because the drop already took out the ones closer in.
Every level
| level | who | away | 1 h | 4 h | 10 h | 1 day | 1 week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89,123 | 10x shorts, at the bounce top | +9.4% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 11% |
| 88,727 | 10x shorts, before PPI | +8.9% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.6% | 10% |
| 87,307 | 10x shorts, at the low | +7.2% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 1.5% | 14% |
| 85,053 | 20x shorts, at the bounce top | +4.4% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 30% |
| 84,676 | 20x shorts, before PPI | +3.9% | under 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.5% | 7.1% | 36% |
| 84,239 | 25x shorts, at the bounce top | +3.4% | under 0.5% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 9.9% | 43% |
| 83,865 | 25x shorts, before PPI | +2.9% | under 0.5% | 1.1% | 3.7% | 11% | 50% |
| 83,320 | 20x shorts, at the low | +2.3% | under 0.5% | 2.7% | 8.3% | 21% | 63% |
| 82,611 | 50x shorts, at the bounce top | +1.4% | 0.7% | 6.7% | 17% | 38% | 78% |
| 82,523 | 25x shorts, at the low | +1.3% | 0.9% | 8.4% | 19% | 38% | 78% |
| 82,245 | 50x shorts, before PPI | +1.0% | 2.9% | 15% | 32% | 51% | 78% |
| 81,797 | 100x shorts, at the bounce top | +0.4% | 18% | 46% | 65% | 76% | 94% |
| 80,170 | 50x longs, at the bounce top | −1.6% | 0.9% | 5.4% | 15% | 33% | 71% |
| 79,334 | 100x longs, at the low | −2.6% | under 0.5% | 1.5% | 4.9% | 14% | 54% |
| 78,542 | 25x longs, at the bounce top | −3.6% | under 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 7.5% | 43% |
| 78,536 | 50x longs, at the low | −3.6% | under 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 7.5% | 43% |
| 78,193 | 25x longs, before PPI | −4.0% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 2.2% | 6.6% | 36% |
| 77,728 | 20x longs, at the bounce top | −4.6% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 30% |
| 77,383 | 20x longs, before PPI | −5.0% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 3.0% | 28% |
| 76,942 | 25x longs, at the low | −5.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 1.6% | 23% |
| 76,144 | 20x longs, at the low | −6.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.8% | 14% |
| 73,658 | 10x longs, at the bounce top | −9.6% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.7% | 8.7% |
| 73,331 | 10x longs, before PPI | −10.0% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.5% | 5.6% |
| 72,158 | 10x longs, at the low | −11.4% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | under 0.5% | 0.5% | 8.8% |
5x levels sit 17–21% away, further than the odds were measured. They get no odds.
The maths, step by step
1. Where a liquidation sits. A 50x long opened at 81,029 puts up 2% of the trade. It is closed when the loss eats that, less the 0.5% the exchange keeps:
81,029 × (1 − 2% + 0.5%) = 81,029 × 0.985 = 79,814.
The low was 79,732, so it was hit. A 25x long puts up 4%: 81,029 × 0.965 = 78,193, still 4% below the price.
A short works the other way. A 100x short opened at the low, 79,732, goes at 79,732 × (1 + 1% − 0.5%) = 80,131. The bounce passed it.
2. How far, in today's moves. Bitcoin's typical move has been 0.36% an hour. The 100x shorts' level at 81,797 is 0.41% away, about 1.1 typical hourly moves. Over 4 hours the typical move is twice that (√4 = 2), so it is 0.6 of a 4-hour move.
3. The chance from history. Over four years of hourly Bitcoin prices, a level about 0.6 typical moves away was touched within 4 hours about 46% of the time. That is the figure in the table. For this level the textbook formula gives 26% in 1 hour and 82% in a day, against history's 18% and 76%. For levels 3% or more away it gives much less than history: for example 0.0% against 1.5% for the 10x shorts from the low within a day. Far levels are reached more often than the formula says, as Benoit Mandelbrot found for prices in 1963: big moves are more common than a bell curve allows.
4. The time of day. The hour from 14:00 UTC has been Bitcoin's busiest: its typical move is 1.6 times the day's average. The next few hours (15:00–17:00 UTC) run 1.2 to 1.4 times. So the next hours after this note are among the most active of the day.
Limits
- One coin. The levels assume isolated margin, a 0.5% maintenance margin, and no fees. Real traders use many leverages and entries.
- The entries are three moments chosen after the fact. Nobody knew the low was the low.
- The odds pool four years of history. They are not adjusted for news.
- Prices from Binance's perpetual for the entries and the price; odds from Bybit's hourly history.
Update, 16 October 2026: two notes
Added after this page was published. The text above is left as it was.
- A few further levels show higher odds than nearer ones, for example 72,158 at 8.8% in a week against 73,331 at 5.6%. The odds should fall with distance. This is noise in our own curve: it is read from history in bands of z, and a thin band takes the rate of every band beyond it. Read neighbouring levels as about the same.
- Liquidation levels don't pull the price. Our CPI note said so and this one should have too. An earlier study of ours found no edge in trading toward them after fees. These odds come only from distance and how much Bitcoin was moving.
Update, 27 October 2026: where the idea comes from
Added after this page was published. The text above is left as it was.
- The release. The PPI is the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly measure of the prices producers are paid. It comes out at the same hour as the CPI. Here it came the day after a hot CPI, so it was the second surprise in two days.
- Why releases move prices most of all: Ederington and Lee (1993), as in our CPI note.
- "Were shorts punished after the longs were flushed?" comes from a common trader idea: a flush of longs is followed by a squeeze of shorts, as shorts who sold the fall are forced to buy back.
- Carol Osler showed in 2005, in currency markets, that forced orders can push the price further once they are set off. That is the mechanism behind both a flush and a squeeze.
- Our Lab study of liquidation cascades tests the same idea every hour, on our own record of liquidations.
- The catch. One release, one coin, one afternoon. The note describes what happened. It can't say whether a squeeze usually follows a flush.
- Theirs and ours. The release is the Bureau's. The touch formula (Bachelier), fat tails (Mandelbrot), the work on releases and Osler's cascades are theirs, credited below. The levels and the touch curve are ours.
Credits
- Louis Bachelier, "Théorie de la spéculation", Annales scientifiques de l'École Normale Supérieure, 1900: the square-root-of-time rule and the textbook touch formula.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices", Journal of Business, 1963: fat tails.
- Louis H. Ederington and Jae Ha Lee, "How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility", Journal of Finance, 1993: the biggest moves come with scheduled releases.
- C. L. Osler, "Stop-Loss Orders and Price Cascades in Currency Markets", Journal of International Money and Finance, 2005: forced orders that push the price further.
- The liquidation levels follow the exchanges' published margin rules, simplified (isolated margin, a 0.5% maintenance margin).
- The touch curve from history is our own, as in "Bitcoin after the CPI flush: where the liquidations sit".
- Data: Binance's and Bybit's public BTCUSDT perpetual prices.
- PerpGremlin and Claude, Bitcoin after the PPI flush: where the liquidations sit, TerminalGremlin, 2026: the tests, the code and the words.
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Educational research from public market data; any trading discussed is paper, never real. Nothing here is advice. The full notice.